Monday, December 28, 2009

Steelers Playoff Picture:

There are still 5 Ways that the Steelers can be eliminated from what I've found, not counting ties of course. Let me know if I missed any:

1. Steelers lose @Dolphins
2. Ravens win @Raiders AND Jets win vs. Bengals
3. Ravens win @Raiders AND Texans win vs. Patriots
4. Jets win vs. Bengals AND Texans win vs. Patriots
5. Texans win vs. Patriots AND Broncos win vs. Chiefs*

*Only scenario that this happens is if Texans, Broncos, and Steelers are the only three 9-7 teams. Conference Record would be Broncos 7-5, Steelers 6-6, and Texans 5-7. The Broncos would then get the 5th seed. Then its between Steelers and Texans for 6th spot. The next tie-breaker is common opponents as long as there is at least four. There is four Bengals, Dolphins, Raiders, and Titans. The Texans have a 4-1 record against these teams and the Steelers are 2-3 against these teams. Therefore, Texans would get the tie-breaker because of better winning percentage against common opponents. It seems unfair because the Steelers killed the Broncos but that's how the NFL does it.

If the Steelers lose they are out.

These 5 scenarios may not look like much, but out of 64 possible scenarios those 5 ways account for 50 of the 64 scenarios. This means there are only 14 scenarios where the Steelers can make the playoffs, meaning the Steelers have a 21.9% chance to make the playoffs.

Courtesy of CBS Sports the ways the Steelers can get into the playoffs are as follows:

1. a win (vs. Miami) and a Houston loss or tie (vs. New England) and a N.Y. Jets loss or tie (vs. Cincinnati)
2. a win and a Houston loss or tie and a Baltimore loss or tie (vs. Oakland) OR
3. a win and a N.Y. Jets loss or tie and a Baltimore loss or tie and a Denver loss or tie (vs. Kansas City)

Of the 14 Scenarios Pittsburgh can get either the 5th or 6th seed.
- 4 of These Scenarios Pittsburgh can get the 5th Seed. In order for this the following things must happen:
~ Patriots over Texans, Bengals over Jets, Raiders over Ravens, and of course Steelers over Dolphins. Basically Pittsburgh has to be 9-7 and everyone else is 8-8, or Pittsburgh and Denver are tied at 9-7 and everyone else is 8-8, that's the only way Pitt will get 5th seed.

In 8 of the 14 scenarios the Steelers will play @Patriots first round (12.5% chance overall)
In 6 of the 14 scenarios the Steelers will play @Bengals first round (9.4% chance overall)

However, the Bengals will ultimately be able to decide there foe because they play the Jets on Sunday night football. So Steelers fans are now temporarily screaming Who Dey!

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