AFC Playoff Picture, Teams Chances, etc.

Current Standings
1. Colts 14-1 - Clinched Home Field Advantage, AFC South
2. Chargers 12-3 - Clinched 2nd Seed, First Round Bye, AFC West
3. Patriots 10-5 - Clinched AFC East
4. Bengals 10-5 - Clinched AFC North
5. Broncos 8-7
6. Jets 8-7
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7. Ravens 8-7
8. Texans 8-7
9. Steelers 8-7
10. Dolphins 7-8
11. Jaguars 7-8

I went through all 64 scenarios that involved the 6 deciding games (2^6=64). The games are as follows:
Patriots@Texans
Bengals@Jets
Chiefs@Broncos
Ravens@Raiders
Steelers@Dolphins
Jaguars@Browns

Chances of getting the 3rd Seed:
Patriots 48/64 = 75%
Bengals 16/64 = 25%

Chances of Bubble Teams getting into the playoffs:
Jets 32/64 = 50%
Ravens 32/64 = 50%
Broncos 26/64 = 40.6%
Texans 16/64 = 25%
Steelers 14/64 = 21.9%
Jaguars 5/64 = 7.8%
Dolphins 2/64 = 3.1%

Comments: Its amazing the Jets and Ravens situation. 50% chance means if they win they are in, but if they lose they miss the playoffs. If a bunch of teams are 8-8 Jaguars would have the tie-breaker for best conference. Dolphins have need pretty much everyone but Denver to lose to get in.

Chances of Bubble Teams getting the 5th Seed:
Jets 32/64 = 50%
Ravens 16/64 = 25%
Broncos 6/64 = 9.4%
Texans 4/64 = 6.3%
Steelers 4/64 = 6.3%
Jaguars 1/64 = 1.6%
Dolphins 0/64 = 0.0%

Comments: This means if the Jets win they get the 5th seed no matter what. This also means that the Bengals will host the Jets first round, so Bengals can know their opponent by losing this week to them. The only way the Jaguars end up with the 5th seed is if every team winds up 8-8. The Dolphins cannot get the 5th seed.

First Round Matchups:
Jets@Bengals 32/64 = 50%
Ravens@Patriots 24/64 = 37.5%
Broncos@Patriots 18/64 = 28.1%
Broncos@Bengals 8/64 = 12.5%
Ravens@Bengals 8/64 = 12.5%
Texans@Bengals 8/64 = 12.5%
Steelers@Patriots 8/64 = 12.5%
Texans@Patriots 8/64 = 12.5%
Steelers@Bengals 6/64 = 9.4%
Jaguars@Patriots 4/64 = 6.3%
Jaguars@Bengals 2/64 = 3.1%
Dolphins@Patriots 2/64 = 3.1%

Comments: Again if Jets win they will play Bengals again back-to-back weeks. This could also happen if the Texans beat the Patriots. Playing teams back-to-back weeks is makes it interesting for coaching decisions: how much do you want to show a team. NFC also has to likely Week 17 + Wildcard matchups in Green Bay-Arizona and Dallas-Philadelphia. After seeing these stats I'm a Bengals fan cheering for the Jets Sunday. Should be able to beat them and get our first playoff win since 1990.

Hope you enjoyed this post. We will all know 100% chances by Sunday night after the Bengals game. But I hope some of this clears it up for you. Just for the record I don't have a girlfriend (or a life) that's why I did this and I love football and Yes your welcome.

- J-rOd